VvE Publicatieprijs Junior Onderzoeker 2023

Het bestuur van de Vereniging voor Epidemiologie is verheugd de VvE Publicatieprijs Junior Onderzoeker 2023 toe te kennen aan:

Jeroen Uleman

Met de publicatie: “Simulating the multicausality of Alzheimer’s disease with system dynamics”

De jury, bestaande uit prof. Myriam Hunink van het Erasmus MC, prof. Yvonne van der Schouw van het UMC Utrecht en prof. Bart Kiemeney van het Radboudumc Nijmegen, heeft het volgende juryrapport opgesteld:

“Many excellent papers were nominated for this year’s publication award making it difficult to choose the one deserving the prize. The choice is always rather subjective. Also, although the award goes to the first author, we recognize that an entire team is behind the publication.

Our choice was motivated by several factors. Alzheimer’s disease is a common problem in our aging population, making it a very relevant topic to study. This study addresses the multiple interlinking causal factors of cognitive decline of Alzheimer’s disease which is an important contribution to this field. Jeroen Uleman and his colleagues took a novel approach to do this using a system dynamics model. The system dynamics model goes beyond causal inference models by including feedback loops, visualizes the causality in an intuitive way, and uses triangulation of published and expert knowledge. The model looks at different levels – brain health, physical health, psychosocial health – and estimates the strength of the 148 causal links. Bayesian methods were used to incorporate prior knowledge and to estimate uncertainty in the posterior probabilities. Subsequently, validity of the model was tested using empirical datasets. Finally, interventions on 15 modifiable risk factors were simulated, the results of which can guide future RCTs. All-in-all we were very impressed by the innovative nature of the approach, the comprehensiveness of the project, and its relevance.”

De VvE Publicatieprijs Junior Onderzoeker is op 23 juni 2023 uitgereikt tijdens het jaarlijks epidemiologisch congres (WEON), georganiseerd door het Erasmus MC in Rotterdam.